Geospatial analysis of population exposure associated with lava flow and Mazuku hazard at Nyiragongo, and implications for evacuation planning for Goma, D.R. Congo

Abstract

The city of Goma in the Democratic Republic of Congo faces significant volcanic hazards from Nyiragongo volcano, yet these dangers are largely overlooked in urban planning and land use strategies. Effective evacuation plans for potential volcanic disasters depend on a thorough understanding of the geospatial characteristics of the evacuation environment, which can change over time. This study assesses risks associated with volcanic hazards in Goma, focusing on exposure to lava flows and the dangers of CO2-rich gas emission areas known locally as Mazuku. Using QGIS and Q-LavHA tools, mapping and simulations were conducted based on historical eruption data from 1977, 2002, and 2021 to model lava flow paths towards Goma from eight eruption vents. The findings indicate that over half of Goma is at high risk from volcanic hazards, particularly in areas where the majority of the population and critical infrastructure are located. To enhance community resilience in line with the eleventh Sustainable Development Goal (SDG 11), this paper proposes evacuation scenarios and mitigation strategies based on a detailed hazard and exposure assessment. The result of this study shows that eleven neighborhoods in the east of Goma city are located in the potential lava flow corridor and that roads, lake ports and part of the airport are potentially exposed to volcanic hazards. This study contributes to global methodologies for assessing volcanic hazard exposure in data poor regions. In addition, the proposed geospatial environment model is crucial for developing agent-based simulation studies to improve evacuation effectiveness during volcanic events.