Future Soil Erosion Under Combined CMIP6 Climate Projections and Land Use/Land Cover Change: A RUSLE ‐Based Assessment of the Kampe Omi Dam Basin in Nigeria

Abstract

ABSTRACT Soil erosion remains a major environmental challenge in Nigeria, driven by the combined effects of climate variability and land use/land cover (LULC) changes. Understanding future dynamics is essential for effective soil conservation planning. This study assessed future soil erosion in the Kampe Omi Dam Basin using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) integrated with Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase six (CMIP6) climate projections and simulated LULC scenarios for intermediate‐emission SSP2‐4.5 and high‐emission SSP5‐8.5 pathways for 2021–2040 and 2041–2060, relative to a 1995–2014 baseline. The results showed no statistically significant trend in annual precipitation, although rainfall erosivity exhibited spatial variability with a general declining tendency across scenarios. Cropland expansion and vegetation loss increased the cover‐management (C) factor, whereas improved conservation practices reduced the support practice (P) factor. The soil loss ranged from 0.00 to 7776.90 t/ha/yr. Despite increasing land‐use pressure, mean soil loss is projected to decline by over 50% in 2021–2040 and by more than 40% by 2041–2060 relative to the baseline (33.71 t/ha/yr), suggesting that reduced rainfall erosivity and improved management may offset erosion risks. Low erosion risk (0–10 t/ha/yr) dominated the basin (88.16%), although localised high‐risk hotspots persisted. Sensitivity analysis showed that while soil loss was most responsive to changes in the C‐factor under perturbed conditions, erosion outcomes were influenced by rainfall erosivity, LULC dynamics, and conservation practices, with the P‐factor exerting an important moderating effect. These findings support targeted watershed management to mitigate future erosion risks and soil conservation planning.