article · Journal of King Saud University - Science
Small hive beetles inflict serious damage on honeybee colonies across multiple regions, with parts of Africa serving as their native habitat. While currently not well established in North Africa and South Europe, shifting temperatures could alter their geographic range. Ecological niche modelling using the maximum entropy algorithm, based on 250 occurrence records and six temperature variables, was applied to project current and future habitat suitability. Future distribution was modelled for 2050 and 2070 using three climate models across both low and high emissions scenarios. The resulting forecasts confirm that small hive beetles are likely to expand northward into North Africa and areas of Southern Europe. This projected range expansion indicates that honeybee colonies in previously unaffected territories face impending risks of beetle-induced damage over the coming decades.
Honeybee colonies are vital for pollination and honey production, but their health is vulnerable to invasive pests. Predicting the geographical spread of destructive pests such as small hive beetles allows beekeepers, biosecurity authorities, and environmental managers in North Africa and Southern Europe to anticipate threats, prepare targeted monitoring plans, and potentially prevent infestations before bee populations suffer widespread damage.
The work represents early-stage predictive research that can inform regional biosecurity surveillance, border inspections, and pest management planning for commercial beekeeping organisations and agricultural regulators in Europe and North Africa. While the models highlight high-risk geographical zones, they do not present direct monitoring products or control technologies. Moving toward practical application will require translating these geographical risk projections into actionable surveillance programmes and local pest prevention protocols.
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The small hive beetles (SHBs) cause dangerous damages to bee colonies in several countries. Some African countries represent the native land to these beetles. The SHBs are not well established in North Africa and South Europe (the closest land to the native countries). Therefore, this study aimed to model the current and future distribution of SHBs in Africa and South Europe utilizing temperature datasets. A total of 250 occurrence data was incorporated in the study. Six temperature variables were used in the Maxent analysis to model the suitability of the study countries for the SHBs. Three climate models were used to estimate the future distribution of SHBs in 2050 and 2070, considering the lowest and the highest limits of the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (126 and 585). The high performance of the used model was confirmed by analyzing omission/commission rates as well as the area under curve. All future maps showed the potential expansion of SHBs towards the Northern parts of Africa and some parts in Europe. Such potential expansion was discussed in light of current distribution of SHBs. The study concluded that the SHBs can cause damages to bee colonies in new regions in Africa and Europe during the near future.
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DOI: 10.1016/j.jksus.2020.101242
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