Future Animal Protein Availability in Turkey: Perspectives and Factors Influencing a Sustainable Equilibrium

Abstract

Due to rising temperatures and increased air pollutants, Turkey, like the rest of the world, is facing climate change that is profoundly affecting its agricultural sector. This situation is aggravated by the aging of the rural population, demographic pressures, and significant immigration from neighboring countries. Despite the expansion of areas dedicated to livestock, the production of animal proteins remains insufficient to meet the growing demand. This study investigated the availability of animal protein in Turkey, projecting the situation to 2030 using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. Various data, encompassing greenhouse gas emission, climatic, economic, and social factors, were collected from sources such as the World Bank and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Databases. Even if Turkey currently meets its animal protein needs, future scenarios may differ. Predictions indicate a potential decline in protein availability at the individual level over the next decade due to climatic conditions, atmospheric and environmental pollutants, social factors, and the level of animal protein production. Projections suggest that the daily consumption of animal protein per individual could drop below 15 g/day. Therefore, it becomes imperative to explore alternative sources of protein such as protein from legumes and plant seeds. Additionally, other options, such as protein derived from grains and oilseeds, are considered key sources of plant-based protein. Projections suggest that the daily consumption of animal protein per individual could drop below 15 g/day.