From school entry to Grade 3: Longitudinal evidence on children's learning from the Western Cape, South Africa

Abstract

This report presents findings from the fourth wave of the Roots and Shoots study, a longitudinal study tracking children’s early learning and development in the Western Cape, South Africa. The study follows the same cohort of learners from the start of primary school through to the end of Grade 3, providing new evidence on how early differences in development translate into later learning outcomes. Using direct child assessments at multiple points in time, the study combines measures of school readiness (ELOM 4&5), early learning (ELOM-R v1), and foundational literacy and numeracy skills (EGRA and EGMA). This longitudinal design allows for an examination of how learning trajectories evolve across the early grades, and whether inequalities observed at school entry persist or change over time. The findings show that substantial socio-economic inequalities in learning outcomes are already present at school entry and remain firmly in place by the end of the Foundation Phase. In some cases, these gaps widen over time. While many children enter school developmentally on track, the likelihood of remaining on track differs markedly across school contexts. Learners in more advantaged schools are far more likely to sustain early gains, while many learners in poorer schools fall behind as they progress through the early grades. These results have important implications for education policy in South Africa. They suggest that expanding access to early childhood development, while essential, is not sufficient on its own to ensure that learners achieve grade-level outcomes. Sustained improvements in teaching and learning in the Foundation Phase are critical to ensuring that early gains are maintained over time.