From Joblessness to Militancy: Identifying the Causal Effect of Youth Unemployment on Recruitment into Extremist Groups in West Africa

Abstract

The pervasive narrative that economic despair drives youth militancy in West Africa lacks robust causal evidence due to persistent endogeneity problems. This study provides a novel causal test by employing an instrumental variable (IV) approach, using international commodity price shocks as an instrument for national youth unemployment rates. Analyzing panel data from 2000 to 2024, we find that instrumented shocks to youth unemployment have a strong, positive, and statistically significant effect on the intensity of militant group activity. This result provides compelling evidence of a causal link between economic distress and militancy. It implies that policies aimed at stabilizing youth employment, particularly in economies dependent on commodities, are a critical tool for countering violent extremism.