From hazard to recovery: Integrating drought persistence and resilience in Morocco under climate change

Abstract

Drought is a slow-onset, systemic risk that impacts water, food, and socio-ecological systems, particularly in semi-arid regions under climate change. However, conventional assessments focus on hazard intensity and frequency, thereby overlooking persistence and recovery dynamics—key characteristics governing cumulative impacts and long-term resilience. To address this limitation, this study applies an integrated, process-oriented approach to Morocco, a Mediterranean climate hotspot highly vulnerable to water scarcity. Specifically, we employ the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to analyze historical conditions (1976–2025) and future climate projections (2030–2060, SSP3-7.0) across three complementary dimensions: the Drought Hazard Index (DHI), the Drought Persistence Index (DPI), and the Recovery–Development Ratio (RDR). Our results reveal a pronounced shift in drought characteristics. Historically, 55.85% of Morocco experienced high drought hazard, with most droughts (72.51%) exhibiting low persistence. In contrast, future projections indicate a substantial expansion of high-hazard areas (68–72%), alongside a marked increase in moderate-to-high persistence events. Most critically, slow-recovery events rise from 35.69% historically to over 50% under the future scenario, indicating more severe, persistent, and prolonged droughts that will test adaptive capacities. These evolving drought dynamics will have profound societal and sectoral consequences. Agriculture will face greater food insecurity, urban water systems will confront equity challenges, and ecosystems will risk irreversible decline. Impacts disproportionately affect vulnerable populations. Consequently, the proposed approach is essential for developing impact-based early-warning systems and stakeholder-informed, co-developed adaptation strategies capable of addressing these compounding, socially differentiated risks.