FROM CHANGE TO CHAIN? DEMOCRATIC GOVERNANCE AND LEADERSHIP CHALLENGES UNDER THE MUHAMMADU BUHARI ADMINISTRATION (2015-2023)

Abstract

This study critically examines governance and leadership under the Muhammadu Buhari administration (2015–2023) within Nigeria’s Fourth Republic. Framed by social contract theory and assessed using the Mo Ibrahim Index of African Governance, the study interrogates four pillars, safety and security, participation and human rights, sustainable economic opportunities, and human development. Relying on secondary data from scholarly works, media reports, and institutional records, the study finds that Buhari’s administration, despite promises of change, largely reproduced governance failures of previous regimes. Key indicators such as insecurity, human rights violations, unemployment, and weak institutions worsened, while gains in infrastructure and anti-corruption were undermined by nepotism, debt accumulation, and inconsistent policies. The findings reveal a disentanglement between Buhari’s reformist image and governance outcomes, reinforcing Nigeria’s cycle of democratic disillusionment. The study concludes by recommending structural reforms, stronger institutions, adherence to the rule of law, and accountable leadership as essential pathways for effective governance and democratic consolidation in Nigeria.