Forecast of the electrical energy demand of N’Djamena, Chad, based on the statistical method

Abstract

We study the forecast of the electrical energy demand of the N'Djamena city, Chad, by 2032 using the statistical model based on the linear regression technic. A series of data of the maximum power demand (PMA) for the past years from 2005 to 2017 are obtained from the dispatching center of the company national electricity board of N'Djamena, which allow us to make energy projection from 2018 to 2032. Then these data are analyzed by the statistical method of linear regression forecast. The results obtained by the linear regression are closed to that provided by the Excel trend curve and they have a strong linear correlation coefficient of 0.963 between the maximum powers estimated and the given years. In addition, the predicted power peak needed by electricity consumers by 2032 is 175 MW compared to 90 MW in 2017, meaning that in 15 years, the consumption of electrical energy will pass from simple to double.