article · Journal of Agriculture and Food Research
Achieving food security is vital for human well-being and aligns with global targets to end hunger. An econometric investigation assessed historical data from Nigeria covering 1980 to 2022 to understand the key factors driving food production. Using the food production index as a core metric, the analysis examined the influences of economic growth, population size, globalization, and inflation. The findings show that economic expansion, measured by gross domestic product, consistently supports food production across both the short and long term. In contrast, population growth exerts a negative short-term pressure across multiple distribution levels. Furthermore, while globalization initially offers limited short-term benefits at lower quantiles, it ultimately exerts a detrimental effect on national food security across all levels over prolonged periods.
Understanding how national growth, demographic shifts, and international integration influence domestic agriculture is essential for developing countries. These insights provide policymakers with evidence on how broader economic conditions either support or hinder domestic food supplies, aiding strategies designed to achieve zero hunger.
The abstract does not indicate an application pathway, as the research is focused on macro-level econometric analysis and policy implications rather than commercial products or services.
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Food security is crucial on a global scale as it provides essential health, social, and economic advantages to the human population. Therefore, to achieve the sustainable development goal of zero hunger (Goal 2), it is imperative to assess the progress of food security, particularly in developing countries. Thus, this reflects on the relative factors affecting food security in Nigeria from 1980 to 2022. The study utilized advanced econometrics approaches such as Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag (QARDL) and Wavelet Coherence (WTC) to analyze the data. Food security is measured using the food production index (FPI), while other variables such as globalization (GLOB), population growth (POP), gross domestic product (GDP) as a measure of economic growth, and inflation are considered. The results of the Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag analysis indicate that in the short-term, globalization has a beneficial impact on FPI at the 0.25 quantile, but it has a detrimental effect on food security at the 0.50 and 0.75 quantiles. Nevertheless, over a prolonged period, the effect is detrimental in all quantiles. Additionally, in the short-term, FPI experiences a beneficial effect from GDP in all quantiles. Over time, GDP has a positive effect on all levels of income distribution. However, in the short-term, the size of the POP has a negative effect on FPI for the 0.25 to 0.75 quantiles. Further discussion is dedicated to policy options and their implications. • Food security remains a key in attaining SDG goal 2 (zero hunger). • The nexus between globalization, economic expansion and population growth on food security is investigated. • The novel wavelet coherence and Quantile Autoregressive lag method was used. • Population growth and globalization has a negative effect on food security. • Economic expansion has a positive effect on food security in Nigeria.
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DOI: 10.1016/j.jafr.2024.101413
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