Firm Performance, Liquidity and Capital Structure Nexus: Evidence from the PMG Panel-ARDL Approach

Abstract

Utilising data from the selected companies listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange and using the Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) specifically employing the Pooled Mean Group approach, this study examines the cointegrating and causal relationships among firm liquidity, performance and firm leverage. The results reveal a negative and significant long-run and short-run relationship between profitability and leverage. Conversely, higher leverage is found to diminish firm performance, consistent with trade-off theory implications regarding financial distress costs. On liquidity, results revealed a bidirectional long-run relationship among liquidity, leverage, and firm value as measured by Tobin’s Q. Also, liquidity plays a pivotal moderating role, where firms with stronger liquidity and profitability exhibit reduced reliance on external debt, highlighting the interplay between financial health and capital structure decisions. Additionally, a positive bidirectional relationship between Tobin’s Q and leverage suggests that growth opportunities and market valuation influence firms’ debt utilisation. The error correction terms confirm stable long-run equilibrium and moderate adjustment speeds. These results contribute to the understanding of optimal capital structure by integrating liquidity and performance factors and provide practical insights for corporate financial management and policy formulation.