Fire Risk Profiling in Informal Settlements: Hazards, Exposure, Vulnerability, and Institutional Response in the Erongo Region, Namibia

Abstract

Fire disasters recur with striking regularity in the informal settlements of Namibia's Erongo Region, yet they are commonly recorded as isolated emergency incidents rather than examined as expressions of deeper urban risk. This paper sets forth a disaster risk profile of Erongo Region's Swapokmund Democratic Settlement and that of Walvis Bay's Twaloloka/Otweya informal settlements. Amidst a lack of empirical evidence to inform policy, the purpose of this paper is to profile the significance of recognising and comprehending the variability of risk within these two informal settlements as well as the manner in which the various factors that influence fire risk operate at varying scales. Using the Pressure and Release Model and, data was collected using transect walks and semi-structured phenomenological interviews as well as focus group discussions. These were preferentially done with individuals who had experienced a fire disaster the previous 2 months. Data was analysed using interpretive phenomenological analysis. The findings show fire risk is not incidental but structurally produced. Fire ignition is hastened by high-density layouts linked to construction with combustible materials, informal energy connections, and use of limited emergency entry routes. These factors interact to create conditions in which ignition is likely and fire spread is rapid. Exposure to fire hazards is continuous rather than episodic as dwellings, livelihood assets, and communal facilities are positioned within compressed spatial considerations. The conclusion drawn is that recurrent fire as a hazard is best understood as a structurally produced urban risk condition. The settlements' material composition, spatial comprehension, environmental exposure, and governance gaps interact in ways that make ignition events both likely and consequential. From the findings, it is apparent that in order for risk reduction strategies to be effective, the focus must not be solely on structural interventions. They must also include elements of social development that are sensitive to current livelihood strategies of informal settlers in the Erngo Region