Fertility Rate in Southern Nigeria: A Multilevel Regression Approach

Abstract

This study assesses fertility differentials in Southern Nigeria using multilevel regression analysis on secondary data from the Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS). A modified multilevel model was applied to account for both fixed and random effects, with key predictors including education, religion, marital structure, and sex of child. The analysis shows that education exerts a strong negative effect on fertility, while polygamy and number of wives significantly increase fertility levels. Religion and sex of child were not statistically significant. The intra-class correlation confirmed that household-level characteristics play a major role in fertility variation across the region. The findings underscore the importance of female education and family structure in shaping reproductive behavior in Southern Nigeria. Policy measures should therefore prioritize women’s education and discourage harmful cultural practices that sustain high fertility.