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Exports, imports, Foreign Direct Investment and CO2 emissions in North Africa: Spatial analysis

2020115 citationsOpen accessKafr el-Sheikh University

In plain language

Economic growth in developing regions often relies on international commerce and foreign investment, yet these drivers can bring environmental costs. An investigation into five North African countries between 1990 and 2014 assesses how income, energy use, trade, and foreign direct investment affect carbon dioxide emissions, accounting for spatial dependency. The findings confirm the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis, showing that all five nations remain in the initial phase where economic expansion increases environmental damage. Furthermore, domestic exports reduce local carbon dioxide emissions but produce positive spillover emissions in neighbouring countries. Conversely, imports and trade openness increase local emissions while generating negative spillovers across borders. Foreign direct investment shows no discernible influence on carbon emissions. Consequently, regional policymakers need to account for the cross-border environmental impacts of trade, economic growth, and energy consumption when designing national policies.

Key takeaways

  • Economic growth in the five examined North African countries correlates with higher carbon dioxide emissions, placing them in the first phase of the Environmental Kuznets Curve.
  • Exports decrease domestic carbon emissions but increase emissions in neighbouring nations through cross-border spillovers.
  • Imports and overall trade openness elevate local emissions while yielding negative spillovers for neighbouring territories.
  • Foreign direct investment demonstrates no statistically meaningful effect on carbon dioxide emissions in the region.

Why it matters

Cross-border economic relationships directly influence environmental quality in North Africa. Because national trade and energy decisions generate spillover effects into neighbouring states, individual countries cannot tackle decarbonisation in isolation. Understanding how trade flows and growth affect regional carbon footprints helps policymakers design coordinated economic and environmental strategies that prevent economic expansion from triggering unchecked degradation.

Commercialisation angle

The abstract does not indicate an application pathway.

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Abstract

Developing countries depend on international trade and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to support their economies. However, these activities should not be to the extent, that their adverse environmental effects get ignored. The present study aims at exploring the impact of income, trade, energy consumption, and FDI on CO2 emissions in five North African countries from 1990 to 2014.​ The analysis also probes the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, considering spatial dependency in the model. We find a significant spatial dependency in the model and validate the presence of the EKC hypothesis as well. All investigated countries are found in the first phase of EKC, which explains the negative environmental consequences of economic growth. Further, we establish evidence of the negative effect of exports on CO2 emissions while their spillover effects on the neighboring countries are found positive. The effects of imports and total trade openness are found positive on local economies, and their spillovers are negative. FDI is not found to be affecting CO2 emissions. We recommend the North African countries to keep the environmental consequences of energy consumption, economic growth, and imports in check while formulating energy, trade, and public policies.

Research topics

  • Energy, Environment, Economic Growth
  • Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth
  • Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies

Read the original research

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DOI: 10.1016/j.egyr.2020.08.038

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