Export–Import Assessment of Tanzania's Produce Market Post‐African Continental Free Trade Area Agreements: The Case of Fruits and Vegetables

Abstract

ABSTRACT Forming the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is a key step towards Africa's economic integration, promoting intra‐African trade and sustainable growth. This study employs the Dynamic Equilibrium Model for Economic Development, Resources and Agriculture (DEMETRA) developed by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre. DEMETRA is calibrated using Tanzania's 2015 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) to assess the impact of the AfCFTA on the country's fruits and vegetables subsectors. Throughout the simulation period, fruit imports in Tanzania are projected to increase by 65.7%, reaching 25.2 billion Tanzanian shillings (Tshs) in value, while exports, particularly under the revenue enhancement (REV) schedule, are expected to grow to 128.9 billion Tshs in value. Vegetable imports are expected to increase in value by 5.3%, while exports are projected to decline by 1.5%. The study encourages authorities to strategically utilize the revenue enhancement (REV) schedule to optimize export profits and recommends enhancing agricultural infrastructure and resources to support sustainable export growth.