Explainable Ensemble Deep Learning Model for Predicting Diabetic Retinopathy Based on APTOS 2019 Eye Pack Dataset

Abstract

Detection of diabetic retinopathy (DR) as early as possible is vital in mitigating the complicated issues associated with the disease. Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI), particularly deep learning (DL) techniques, have led to appreciable increase in the accuracy of predicting various disease classes. However, the challenge of AI models is the difficulty in providing insights into how and why a model arrives in attaining decision-making to facilitate trust and adoption in clinical settings. Therefore, this study aimed to enhance the detection rate of DR and explain the significant regions on the image for the model's overall performance. This study utilised Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, Simple Recurrent Neural Networks (SRNN), and XGBoost in an ensemble model (EM). Specifically, Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), a popular Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) technique was utilised to identify and provide insights to which parts of the images features that contribute to the model's overall performance. After a series of experiments using the APTOS 2019 eye pack dataset collected from the Kaggle repository to evaluate the performance of CNN, LSTM, SRNN, and XGBoost. The EM outperformed all the other models with 95.63% accuracy, 97.79% precision, 93.64% recall rate, 98.79% F1-score and 97.75% AUC score. Also, SHAP analysis revealed significant regions on the image that influenced predictions, thus showing how important interpretability was for the model. The results imply that the ensemble DL, particularly with XGBoost, enhances the detection of DR, thereby improving the efficiency of screening tests and supporting personalised treatment plans in clinical practice through integrating these advanced models with XAI tools, creating trust towards automated diagnostic systems.