Evaluating the Financial Factors Influencing Maternal, Newborn, and Child Health in Africa: Tobit Regression and Data Envelopment Analysis

Abstract

Background: Despite international efforts, maternal, newborn, and child health (MNCH) outcomes in Africa continue to lag due to inefficient health systems and underperforming financial frameworks. Financial factors-such as total health expenditure, health coverage indices, and spending per capita-are key but understudied drivers of MNCH service efficiency. Objective: This study investigates the extent to which financial inputs influence the technical efficiency of MNCH service delivery across 46 African countries. The aim is to generate evidence for health financing policies that can enhance both efficiency and health equity. Methods: We adopted a 2-stage analytical framework. First, data envelopment analysis using a variable returns-to-scale, input-oriented model was applied to measure technical efficiency. Second, Tobit regression identified the financial determinants of inefficiency. Explanatory variables included current health expenditures, a health coverage index, and current health expenditures per capita. Results: Only 12 of 46 countries (26%) achieved full technical efficiency (efficiency score=1), while the rest (n=34, 74%) were inefficient, with a mean score of 0.849. Efficiency was notably lower in low-income countries (mean 0.810) compared to upper-middle-income countries (mean 0.940). Tobit regression showed that increased current health expenditure significantly reduced inefficiency (β=-.0811; P=.001). Conversely, a higher health coverage index unexpectedly increased inefficiency (β=.0155; P=.001), suggesting that expanded coverage without improved governance or resource capacity may strain systems. Health expenditure per capita was not statistically significant. Model 2 demonstrated stronger explanatory power (pseudo R²=0.8943). Conclusions: Financial factors, particularly total health expenditure, play a decisive role in shaping MNCH efficiency across African nations. However, expanding health coverage without parallel improvements in system governance may exacerbate inefficiencies. To enhance MNCH outcomes, policy efforts must focus on increasing and strategically allocating financial resources while strengthening institutional accountability and performance.