Evaluating the Enhanced Bathtub Model for Coastal Flood Risk Assessment in Table Bay, South Africa

Abstract

ABSTRACT Coastal zones are susceptible to increasing pressures from urban development and natural hazards, such as storm events, climate change, and rising sea levels. The GIS‐based enhanced bathtub model (eBTM) enables the identification of areas at risk of flooding as a baseline for disaster management and coastal adaptation. This study aims to establish the methodological robustness of the eBTM for coastal flood modeling, by analyzing eight sites flooded during a recent storm event in Table Bay, Cape Town by comparing eBTM outputs with observed flood extent data collected after the storm. The validation showed that for 74% of the 332 validation points the spatial modeling error was < 6 m and for 56% below 3 m. The root mean square error for the model was 4.88 m, indicating an acceptable level of accuracy of the eBTM outputs for coastal risk assessments where more sophisticated models are unavailable.