Evaluating Food Production Shocks and Their Effects on Population Growth and Hunger in Africa

Abstract

This study evaluates the impact of a one-standard deviation shock on food production and its subsequent effects on hunger and population growth in Africa. Using a forty-one-year dataset sourced from the Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System (ReSAKSS), the African Development Bank (AfDB), the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA), and the World Bank Development Indicators, the study employs three estimation methods: long-run significance, vector autoregression, and impulse response function (IRF). The findings indicate no long run correlation between the variables. However, the IRF suggests that shocks to food production negatively impact hunger and population growth. The study underscores the need for urgent mass food production and the use of advanced agricultural production techniques to mitigate the exacerbating hunger crisis in Africa, given the rising population, conflicts, and climate change challenges.