article · Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses
Influenza and other respiratory viruses circulate throughout the year in Kenya, requiring continuous monitoring through sentinel surveillance. Using hospitalisation data collected across nine sites between 2019 and 2025, a framework was established using the moving epidemic method to set intensity thresholds for seasonal severity. These thresholds categorise admissions into moderate, high, and very high severity for both paediatric and adult groups. Assessments in 2024 and 2025 indicated that respiratory illness and influenza hospitalisations generally stayed below moderate annual thresholds, reflecting low to moderate overall severity, though influenza hospitalisations surpassed moderate biannual thresholds during peak transmission weeks. This framework supports national public health responses and offers a model for other countries without traditional seasonal influenza patterns.
Traditional seasonal influenza models assume distinct winter peaks, which does not match year-round transmission patterns in equatorial countries. Establishing localised intensity thresholds helps health authorities accurately recognise when disease burden is surging. This enables timely hospital resource allocation, improves outbreak preparedness, and integrates low-latitude disease data into global surveillance networks.
The work represents an applied and tested public health surveillance methodology rather than a commercial product. Its primary end users are national health ministries, public health agencies, and global disease monitoring organisations. The operational framework can be integrated into existing epidemiological analytics software or hospital data platforms to support automated alerts and resource planning in regions with non-seasonal viral circulation.
AI-generated from the published abstract. Always read the original work before citing.
ABSTRACT Background In Kenya, influenza and other respiratory viruses circulate year‐round. The Ministry of Health monitors severe acute respiratory infections (SARI), including influenza‐associated hospitalizations, through a sentinel surveillance network. We developed intensity thresholds (ITs) to assess seasonal severity based on respiratory illness‐ and influenza‐associated hospitalizations. Methods Nine surveillance sites contributed data from January 2019 through December 2025 (with rolling start dates). Weekly all‐cause admissions, respiratory illnesses, and influenza testing in pediatric (0–13 years) and adult (≥ 14 years) medical wards were collected using retrospective record review (prior to June 2023) and SARI surveillance platform reporting (June 2023 onwards). Four sites had sufficient historical data to calculate ITs for the 2024 assessment; eight sites were included for 2025. We used the moving epidemic method to calculate annual and biannual ITs for moderate (50th percentile; IT 50 ), high (IT 90 ), and very high (IT 98 ) severity for the percentage of hospitalizations for respiratory illness and influenza, overall and by age group. Results During 2024 and 2025, respiratory illness–associated hospitalizations remained below the IT 50 for most of the year across age groups, with 1–2 weeks above the IT 50 . Influenza‐associated hospitalizations also remained below the annual IT 50 in both years but exceeded the biannual IT 50 for several weeks at each wave's peak. Conclusions In 2024 and 2025, respiratory illness–associated and influenza‐associated hospitalization severity was low to moderate. This approach can guide public health activities in Kenya, contribute to global influenza surveillance, and provide a framework to assess influenza severity in countries without clear Northern or Southern Hemisphere seasonality.
This page summarises published work. The authoritative version sits with the publisher.
DOI: 10.1111/irv.70314
Is something wrong with this record? Report it or request removal.
Discussion
Have you built on this work, tried to replicate it, or seen it applied in practice? Share what you know. Verified researchers and MARATTO™ domain experts can open a discussion, and any member can reply. Contributions are reviewed before they appear.
No discussion yet. Open the first thread.
New to MARATTO™? Create a free account.
