Enhancing Sustainable Development Goals Through Future Vapor Pressure Deficit Analysis In The Nile River Basin

Abstract

Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD) is crucial in meteorology and agriculture for understanding plant-environment interactions. Its application as an indicator in agricultural practices notably advances Sustainable Development Goals such as Zero Hunger (SDG 2) and Climate Action (SDG 13). This research focuses on the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity and food security in the Nile River Basin (NRB), emphasizing the role of VPD, temperature, and precipitation. Utilizing Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets from NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, the study analyzes key climatic variables that influence agricultural conditions. The study applies the Mann-Kendall test to evaluate VPD trends from 2000 to 2060 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. The study's findings on the implications of rising VPD levels in the Nile River Basin (NRB), particularly under the SSP 5-8.5 scenario, highlight a critical challenge for the region's agricultural productivity and food security. The increased VPD, indicative of drier conditions, leads to a moisture deficit for crops, potentially reducing agricultural yields. This scenario poses a significant threat to food security, as lower crop yields can result in food shortages and higher food prices, adversely affecting vulnerable populations. The study underscores the necessity of integrating VPD insights into agricultural and water resource management strategies to uphold food security against climatic variations in support of the SDGs.