El Niño’s Implications for the Victoria Falls Resort and Tourism Economy in the Era of Climate Change

Abstract

Scientists agree that as global temperatures rise, the intensity of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon also increases. In southern Africa, El Niño events often cause severe droughts that adversely affect a region’s gross domestic product (GDP). However, the impact of El Niño on the tourism industry in this area has not been studied sufficiently. This study examines how frequently El Niño events occur and their consequences on the Victoria Falls resort. It specifically focuses on the potential implications for the regional tourism economy during the 2023–2024 El Niño event. This study critically analyses potential strategies for tourism businesses to enhance their resilience in light of the increasing intensity of El Niño events in the region. Using the Niño 3.4 index, it has been determined that there have been at least four extreme El Niño events since 1980: 1983, 1998, and 2016, and most recently, in 2023/24. Analysis of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and hydrological data from the Victoria Falls hydrological station showed that El Niño events significantly affect water flows at Victoria Falls, negatively impacting the resort’s reputation and brand. Examination of tourism statistics reveals that drought often leads to a decline in tourism, negatively affecting tourist resort towns’ economies. Given the projected record-low water levels for late 2024, this study recommends implementing improved communication and marketing strategies that highlight low-water activities and other non-water-dependent tourism offerings at the resort to ensure the resilience of the tourism economy. There is an urgent need to promote resorts as year-round destinations to support the climate-resilient tourism sector.