Effects of climate change on the food security of Morocco: A case study of the Bouregreg watershed

Abstract

This study examines the impact of climate variability on agricultural systems in Morocco, with particular attention to wheat production and vegetation dynamics in a context of increasing temperature, decreasing and irregular rainfall, and heightened exposure to droughts and floods. This work aims to evaluate the magnitude and spatial extent of the combined effects of climate variability and agricultural and pastoral activities on the surface condition of the Bouregreg watershed. The specific objectives are to analyze recent climatic changes, assess their influence on plant-level alterations, and examine how agricultural and pastoral practices interact with climatic constraints to affect agricultural productivity. The study is based on an evaluation of climatic variability, including changes in temperature and rainfall patterns, alongside an analysis of vegetation dynamics as indicators of agricultural and environmental conditions within the Bouregreg watershed. Particular attention is given to inter-annual variability in agricultural yields and to the role of agricultural and pastoral activities in shaping vegetation responses to climatic stress. The analysis highlights a decline and increasing irregularity of rainfall, rising temperatures, and a high frequency of extreme climatic events, which collectively contribute to low average wheat yields and strong inter-annual variability in Morocco. Compared with other Mediterranean countries, Morocco exhibits limited technological progress in wheat production, which amplifies the sensitivity of agricultural output to climatic fluctuations. The findings indicate that national agriculture, particularly wheat production, is highly vulnerable to ongoing climatic changes. The strong dependence of agricultural performance on climate variability and land use practices suggests significant risks for the sustainability of agricultural systems and underscores the need for improved adaptation strategies to mitigate future impacts on food security.