Effect of Climate Variability on Rice Production in Liberia

Abstract

Climate variability poses major challenges to agriculture worldwide amid an increasing world population and growing food demand. This study evaluates the impact of climate variability on rice production in Liberia. Rice yields and production data (1990–2023) were attained from the Food and Agriculture Organization Statistics (FAOSTAT), while temperature and precipitation were sourced from ERA5 Agrometeorological Indicators and the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS). Trends and relationships were analyzed using Mann–Kendall, Sen’s slope tests, and Spearman’s rank correlation. Multiple linear regression estimates climate variables’ impact on rice productivity. The results show that mean, minimum, and maximum temperatures increased by 0.57 °C, 0.55 °C, and 0.55 °C, respectively, with precipitation variability at 180.31 mm. Climate variables showed diverse correlations with rice production. Regression results revealed a significant negative impact of minimum temperature (p-value = 0.015) on production and a positive effect of precipitation on yields (p-value = 0.036). Farmers in Liberia recognized climate impacts and adopted adaptation strategies, but resilience is hindered by limited credit access, low technology adoption, reliance on traditional practices, and inadequate extension services. Overall, the findings highlight the sensitivity of rice production in Liberia to climate variability and underscore the need for guided adaptation and institutional support to augment farmer resilience.