Economics of African biodiversity genomics and bioinformatics for prosperity

Abstract

African biodiversity is at a transformative juncture where advances in genome sequencing and bioinformatics could support productivity gains, structural transformation, and greater economic resilience. In this work, we examine how the generation, sharing, and use of Digital Sequence Information (DSI) shape the economic returns from biodiversity genomics and bioinformatics in African economies. Using a tripartite analytical lens spanning biodiversity, genomics, and economics, we combine macroeconomic simulations with qualitative evidence on institutional and policy conditions, drawing on emerging continent-wide coordination efforts catalysed through the African BioGenome Project (AfricaBP). Our results demonstrate that expanding sequencing and bioinformatics capacities and innovations can increase aggregate output and capital income across African regions, with gains up to 26% in the Economic Community of West African States and the East African Community. Labor income declines by around 18% in the Arab Maghreb Union due to the strong substitution between labor and capital, and consequently an increase in capital intensity in the most productive sectors. Productivity gains propagate through structural transmission channels and sectoral linkages, yet returns remain uneven across countries, with benefit-cost ratios exceeding 22 in Nigeria and falling below 1 unity in smaller economies, demonstrating that for every USD1 Nigeria invests in sequencing biodiversity genomes it will receive USD22 in return. We show that translating genomic innovation into broad-based prosperity requires simple and implementable national Access and Benefit Sharing frameworks, supported by bespoke Intellectual Property rules, and clear attribution and recognition practices. Increased DSI generation and use could also create fiscal space to support implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (KMGBF), while strengthening research independence and local scientific capabilities. The data presented in this work provides the first foundational quantitative assessment on how African countries could self-finance their commitments in the KMGBF through DSI.