article · Discover Environment
Analysis of Nigerian agricultural data from 1990 to 2024 reveals that socioeconomic factors substantially affect how closely farming output approaches its climate-determined potential. Renewable energy and human capital development serve as the primary long-run drivers of realised climate potential productivity, with renewable energy also offering immediate short-run gains to narrow the output gap. Conversely, environmental degradation and unmanaged economic expansion exert downward pressure on agricultural ceilings over time, although their statistical impact remains inconclusive. Dynamic simulations confirm that sustained investments in skills and clean power infrastructure yield enduring agricultural benefits. Consequently, pairing renewable energy distribution with agricultural extension programmes and ecological preservation offers a viable pathway to enhance staple crop yields, strengthen foundational food security, and ensure agricultural output reaches its climate-conditioned ceiling in developing agrarian economies.
Closing the gap between theoretical climate capacity and real farm yields is critical for national food security. By demonstrating that clean power and workforce skills directly expand agricultural output, this research shows that environmental sustainability and agricultural productivity reinforce each other. It provides evidence for directing public and private resources toward clean energy and farmer training to safeguard staple crop production under changing environmental conditions.
This work represents early-stage macroeconomic and policy research rather than a commercial product. The findings could inform strategic investment frameworks for renewable energy developers, agricultural extension providers, and public infrastructure planners seeking to deploy clean energy within farming regions. Real-world application depends on governments and development finance institutions translating these broad policy recommendations into targeted rural energy projects and farmer education programmes.
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Climate potential productivity (CPP) in agrarian economies is frequently analysed through a purely biophysical lens, obscuring the socioeconomic pathways through which environmental degradation, human capital deficits, and energy constraints prevent actual agricultural output from realising its climate-determined ceiling. Using annual time-series data for Nigeria from 1990 to 2024, this study examines the determinants of realised climate potential productivity computed via the Thornthwaite Memorial model. Employing the novel Dynamic ARDL simulation framework corroborated by DOLS estimation and a cereal yield robustness check, the findings show that human capital and renewable energy exert significant positive long-run effects on CPP, with elasticities of approximately 0.478% and 0.510% respectively, while ecological footprint and economic expansion impose negative but statistically inconclusive pressures. In the short run, renewable energy delivers a pronounced productivity response of 0.921%, underscoring its capacity to rapidly close the realisation gap. Dynamic simulations confirm that positive shocks to human capital and renewable energy generate persistent CPP gains, whereas ecological intensification and unmanaged income growth erode climate-conditioned agricultural potential over time. These results identify human capital development and clean energy transition as the primary actionable channels through which Nigeria can narrow the gap between actual and climate-determined agricultural productivity. The study underscores the need for integrated policies combining agricultural extension, renewable energy infrastructure, and ecological conservation to enhance long-run climate-conditioned agricultural productivity, with potential implications for improving staple crop yields and strengthening the productive base upon which food security ultimately depends.
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DOI: 10.1007/s44274-026-00964-1
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