Early and Serial Assessment of N-Terminal Pro B-Type Natriuretic Peptide and Inferior Vena Cava Diameter for Mortality Prediction in Acute Decompensated Heart Failure

Abstract

Background: Accurate assessment of volume status in cases with acutely decompensated heart failure (ADHF) is crucial for prognostication and management. While brain natriuretic peptide (pro-BNP) and echocardiographic inferior vena cava (IVC) diameter are commonly used surrogate markers, their combined prognostic value has not been thoroughly established. Methods: This prospective cohort study included 100 adults with ADHF and reduced ejection fraction (EF <40%). Pro-BNP levels and IVC diameter were assessed on admission and after 72 hours. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality; secondary outcomes included complications and 30-day cardiovascular mortality. Repeated measures ANOVA, ROC analysis, and correlation testing were performed to evaluate predictive value. Results: In-hospital mortality occurred in 21% of cases. Pro-BNP levels were significantly higher in non-survivors both on admission (median: 11,542 pg/mL vs. 6,350 pg/mL, p<0.001) and after 72 hours (3,695 pg/mL vs. 3,029 pg/mL, p<0.001). Similarly, IVC diameter was significantly greater in the mortality group at both time points (2.85 cm vs. 2.2 cm on admission, p<0.001; 2.15 cm vs. 1.9 cm after 72 hours, p=0.004). ROC analysis revealed strong predictive power for in-hospital mortality with admission Pro-BNP >8,856 pg/mL (AUC=0.89) and IVC diameter >2.55 cm (AUC=0.81). A combined model incorporating both parameters at admission yielded the highest diagnostic accuracy (AUC=0.89; NPV=95.4%). Conclusion: Pro-BNP and IVC diameter are independent yet complementary predictors of in-hospital mortality in ADHF. Combined early assessment significantly enhances risk stratification and may guide intensive monitoring and therapeutic strategies.