Dynamics for a non-autonomous fall armyworm-maize interaction model with a saturation functional response

Abstract

In this study, we present a non-autonomous model with a Holling type II functional response, to study the complex dynamics for fall armyworm-maize biomass interacting in a periodic environment. Understanding how seasonal variations affect fall armyworm-maize dynamics is critical since maize is one of the most important cereals globally. Firstly, we study the dynamical behaviours of the basic model; that is, we investigate positive invariance, boundedness, permanence, global stability and non-persistence. We then extended the model to incorporate time dependent controls. We investigate the impact of reducing fall armyworm egg and larvae population, at minimal cost, through traditional methods and use of chemical insecticides. We noted that seasonal variations play a significant role on the patterns for all fall armyworm populations (egg, larvae, pupae and moth). We also noted that in all scenarios, the optimal control can greatly reduce the sizes of fall armyworm populations and in some scenarios, total elimination may be attained. The modeling approach presented here provides a framework for designing effective control strategies to manage the fall armyworm during outbreaks.