Dynamics and ecology of a multi-stage expansion of Oropouche virus in Brazil

Abstract

Abstract In March 2024, the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) issued an alert in response to a rapid increase in Oropouche fever cases across South America. Brazil has been particularly affected, reporting a novel reassortant lineage of the Oropouche virus (OROV) and expansion to previously non-endemic areas beyond the Amazon Basin. Utilising phylogeographic approaches, we reveal a multi-scale expansion process with both short and long-distance dispersal events, and diffusion velocities in line with human-mediated jumps. We identify forest cover, banana and cocoa cultivation, temperature, and human population density as key environmental factors associated with OROV range expansion. Using ecological niche modelling, we show that OROV circulated in areas of enhanced ecological suitability immediately preceding its explosive epidemic expansion in the Amazon. This likely resulted from the virus being introduced into simultaneously densely populated and environmentally favourable regions in the Amazon, such as Manaus, leading to an amplified epidemic and spread beyond the Amazon. Our study provides valuable insights into the dispersal and ecological dynamics of OROV, highlighting the role of human mobility in colonisation of new areas, and raising concern over high viral suitability along the Brazilian coast.