Drought impacts and community adaptation: Perspectives on the 2020–2023 drought in East Africa

Abstract

The Horn of Africa drylands (HAD) encompassing Kenya, Somalia, and Ethiopia, recently endured an unprecedented multi-year drought from 2020 to 2023, causing devastating impacts. This study investigates these impacts and the dynamics of human adaptation in response to the drought, comparing it to earlier drought events (i.e., 2016–2018) to identify key lessons. First, drought impact data—covering milk production, trekking distances to water sources, and internally displaced persons (IDPs)—are analysed over time to provide a detailed overview of drought dynamics. Second, household survey data (n = 752) are used to examine community perceptions of the drought period and their adaptation strategies. Finally, agent-based modeling (ABM) simulations explore the interactions between mitigation, adaptation decisions, and drought impacts. The results reveal that, on average, the 2020–2023 drought had more severe impacts than the 2016–2018 drought, although the latter exhibited greater variability in impacts. Communities have adopted various adaptation measures to cope with drought effects; however, limited knowledge and financial resources remain significant barriers to scaling these efforts. ABM simulations indicate that enhancing extension services can boost the adoption of adaptation strategies, leading to increased crop and milk production. Additionally, the simulations suggest that water harvesting can mitigate drought impacts upstream, though it may reduce water availability downstream. These findings highlight the critical need for sustained investments in adaptation measures, timely and well-informed decision-making, and region-specific interventions while carefully considering the trade-offs associated with these strategies.