Drivers of corruption risk in Malawi’s large infrastructure projects: a longitudinal policy and institutional analysis (1966–2025)

Abstract

Corruption in large infrastructure projects remains a persistent governance challenge in low- and middle-income countries despite extensive reform efforts. This paper examines the persistence and evolution of corruption risk in Malawi’s infrastructure sector through a longitudinal analysis of institutional evolution, governance reforms, and political–economic dynamics from 1966 to 2025. Rather than measuring corruption incidence, the study adopts a risk-based, system-level perspective that conceptualises corruption as a dynamic governance phenomenon. Drawing on qualitative analysis of legislation, procurement frameworks, national development strategies, governance diagnostics, and evidence from Malawi CoST assurance reports, the paper traces how reforms reshaped discretion, accountability, and enforcement across the project lifecycle. The findings show that reform intensity has not reduced corruption risk but instead produced institutional expansion without corresponding enforcement effectiveness. Corruption risk is displaced across lifecycle stages, concentrating in project identification, design, and contract management. This displacement is mediated through imbalances in discretion, accountability, and enforcement. The study identifies structural, institutional, organisational, and political–economic drivers underpinning this persistence. It advances a lifecycle-based framework with implications for infrastructure sustainability and governance reform in developing countries.