Drivers and Implications of land use land cover change for Wufe- Washa Forest and neighboring areas, Amhara Region, Ethiopia

Abstract

Abstract Land use land cover change (LULCC) has been among the causes of accelerated global environmental change, particularly in developing countries, including Ethiopia. This study, therefore, aimed to comprehend and detect the dynamics and spatial pattern of LULC in Wufe-Washa Forest and the neighboring areas over the last five decades. Sequential Landsat satellite images of different times , Multispectral Scanner /MSS (1973), Thematic Mapper/TM (1985), Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus/ETM (2000), and Operational Landsat Imageries/OLI (2022) were used to generate LULC types. The image analysis used R Studio (version 02.2.4) and Random Forest (RF) techniques supported by training data derived from field, Google Earth map, and Landsat images, with sample sizes corresponding to different years. Stratified random sampling generated a total of 320, 370, 460, and 515 points for 1973, 1985, 2000, and 2022, respectively. Socio-economic data from the local community were used to identify the drivers of LULCC and its repercussions on the biophysical environment. Classification used 70% and 30% of the points for training and accuracy testing, prospectively. The classification considered target classes relevant to the study's purpose, which yielded six classes based on image analysis supported by site observation and interviews, such as forest, cropland, bare land, shrublands, grassland, and settlement LULC types. The LULCC analysis result also revealed that the forest cover increased by 39.03% in the period from 1973 to1985 and increased by 45.37%, during 1985–2000. However, in the third comparison period (2000–2022) the forest cover decreased by 4.58%. Socioeconomic and political factors such as agricultural expansion activities, population pressure, and government policy changes were the major causes of forest cover change in the study area. Therefore, it is important to have an appropriate land use plan and policy to ensure a well-taught LULCC.