Does climate-resilient growth improve food security? Evidence from low- and middle-income countries

Abstract

This study examines how climate change, agricultural performance, and economic development influence food security in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) over the period 1980–2024. Using a Panel ARDL (PARDL) framework estimated with the Mean Group (MG) and Pooled Mean Group (PMG) methods, we test for unit roots and cointegration, identifying both short- and long-run determinants. The results show that aggregate GDP and agricultural output enhance food security. In contrast, GDP per capita exerts an adverse effect, suggesting that economic growth alone does not ensure equitable access to food. Rainfall has a positive and significant impact, while temperature and population growth display limited long-run influence. Short-run estimates reveal pronounced vulnerability to climatic and agricultural shocks, with rainfall, temperature, and output fluctuations playing significant roles. The error-correction terms confirm convergence toward long-run equilibrium, though the speeds of adjustment differ across countries. The Hausman test supports the PMG specification, validating the assumption of common long-run effects alongside heterogeneous short-run dynamics. Overall, the findings highlight the need for integrated policies that combine inclusive growth, climate-resilient agriculture, and rapid-response mechanisms to strengthen both immediate and sustainable food security outcomes. • Investigates how climate-resilient growth affects food security in LMICs (1980–2024). • Employs Panel ARDL estimators (MG, PMG, DFE) to distinguish short- and long-run effects. • Finds that total GDP enhances food security, while GDP per capita shows an adverse effect. • Rainfall improves food outcomes; temperature and population growth show limited impact. • Results highlight the need for inclusive growth and climate-resilient agricultural policies.