Digital Pathogens: Modelling infodemics as a public health threat across sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract

The rapid proliferation of digital connectivity across sub-Saharan Africa has simultaneously expanded access to health information and amplified the spread of harmful misinformation. This brief communication introduces the notion of digital pathogens, units of false or misleading health information that spread across digital networks, as a novel epidemiological framework for analysing and managing infodemics. We argue that health misinformation follows transmission dynamics structurally comparable to those of biological infectious agents, allowing formal mathematical analysis through compartmental modelling. To this end, we develop a Susceptible–Exposed–Spreading–Recovered–Waned ( S E S R W ) framework that captures the viral dissemination, algorithmic amplification, and eventual decline of digital pathogens. The infodemic reproduction number R 0 info is derived and interpreted as a threshold quantity governing infodemic persistence. It is noted that if R 0 info > 1 the infodemic persists, whereas R 0 info < 1 leads to clearance of the infodemic. A normalised elasticity analysis shows that R 0 info is most sensitive to the effective contact rate, followed by the rate of natural disengagement and the policy levers of content moderation and fact-checking. Drawing on documented episodes of vaccine misinformation, antimicrobial misuse narratives, and outbreak-related falsehoods across Africa, we outline a context-specific management framework built on four pillars; surveillance, transmission mapping, containment, and resilience building. The study highlights the pressing need to embed infodemic preparedness within national public health systems, and establishes mathematical modelling as a critical instrument for quantifying, forecasting, and ultimately curbing the spread of digital pathogens.