Determinants of Wheat Production in Nigeria (1981 – 2019): A Bounds Testing Approach

Abstract

The study examined the analysis of trends and determinants of wheat production in Nigeria between 1981 and 2019. The data for this study are time series data at macro level spanning from 1981 to 2019. All the data were largely sourced from Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) statistical data base, Penn world data of the university of Pennsylvania and Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin. The data include output of wheat in Nigeria, local and international price of wheat, real exchange rate, and external reserve. The data were analyzed using autoregressive distributed lags to access the relationship between wheat output and factors affecting wheat production in Nigeria. Results showed that external reserve, per capita income, market reforms and technological advancement significantly increased wheat production in Nigeria. Consistency of government policies and policy actions geared towards reducing wheat imports should especially pursued by the government.