Determinants of the perceived financial threat of COVID-19 and implications for household economic stability: an application of the partial proportional odds model

Abstract

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has been one of the most significant global health crises in recent years. This study aimed to assess the determinants of perceived financial threat of COVID-19 and its implications on household's economic stability in Ethiopia. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted on 3058 households from the third round of the COVID-19 high-frequency phone survey of households (HFPS-HH) data, executed by the Central Statistical Agency of Ethiopia in partnership with the World Bank. The data were extracted and managed using STATA version 17. A partial proportional odds model was applied to assess the significant predictors that affect the perceived financial threat of COVID-19. RESULT: The analysis revealed that 79.9% of respondents (95% CI: 78.5-81.4%) experienced some level of financial threat from the COVID-19 pandemic, with the majority of them (61.7%; 95% CI: 60.0-63.4%) perceiving it as a substantial financial threat. Key factors of financial threat included Age [AOR = 1.280, P = 0.008]; COVID-19 illness worry for substantial threat (AOR = 0.546, p < 0.001), for moderate threat (AOR = 0.562, P = 0.005)]; Ability to buy medicine for substantial threat [AOR = 0.546, p < 0.001], for moderate threat [AOR = 0.562, p = 0.005]; employed [AOR = 1.310, p = 0.014]; engagement in additional income activities for substantial threat [AOR = 3.428, p < 0.001], and for moderate threat [AOR = 3.043, P = 0.018]. CONCLUSION: The findings revealed that a significant proportion of respondents perceived COVID-19 as a financial threat, which adversely affected their economic stability. Vulnerability to financial threat was notably higher among older individuals, the unemployed, those unable to afford essential medicine, and respondents who expressed heightened concern about illness. In contrast, engagement in additional income-generating activities served as a protective factor. These results underscore the need for policymakers to prioritize inclusive social protection systems, expand access to affordable healthcare, promote employment opportunities, and facilitate income diversification. Such interventions are critical to enhancing household economic resilience and enabling a rapid response to future public health and economic crises. Additionally, future research should consider longitudinal designs to track changes in perceptions over time and incorporate broader economic indicators.