Deep learning and Multi-Sensor Remote Sensing for predicting Atlas cedar resilience: Integrating Landsat-8, Sentinel-2, and Field Inventories within an AI-Driven Ecological Monitoring Framework

Abstract

Atlas cedar (Cedrus atlantica) forests in Morocco’s Middle Atlas are experiencing an accelerated decline due to combined climatic and human pressures. Building on previous work on forest transition modeling, this study presents a deep-learning–based framework designed to predict and monitor the ecological resilience of Atlas cedar ecosystems. Multi-sensor satellite images from Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2, combined with field inventory data from the Ain Leuh–Sidi M’Guild massif, were processed to evaluate vegetation health, canopy density, and regeneration potential from 2013 to 2024. A hybrid Convolutional Neural Network–Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (CNN–BiLSTM) model was built to capture both spatial and temporal patterns of forest loss and recovery. Spectral indices such as NDVI, NBR, NDMI, and SAVI were extracted and standardized, while terrain features (altitude, slope, aspect) and bioclimatic variables (temperature seasonality, precipitation during the driest quarter) were included in the model. The hybrid CNN–BiLSTM architecture achieved an overall prediction accuracy of 94.7%, surpassing traditional machine learning methods (Random Forest, SVM, and Gradient Boosting). The spatio-temporal projections reveal a notable decline (−62%) of high-density cedar stands in low-elevation areas, while upper-slope refugia show partial stability and higher regeneration likelihoods. These results demonstrate the potential of deep learning combined with high-resolution Earth observation data for real-time forest health monitoring and adaptive management. The developed framework provides an operational foundation for Morocco’s Forest Strategy 2020–2030, enabling proactive decision-making for climate-resilient reforestation and ecological restoration in Mediterranean mountain ecosystems.