Current status and future vision of the Egyptian agricultural fertilizer balance using Box Jenkins approach

Abstract

The agricultural necessaries have the major affects in developing such sector .chemical factors which help in production and production and productivity of such sector. For these necessary, the target of the study can be summarized as Studying the time -being and the expected quantities from nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers. The study also relied on approach of box -Jenkins to test the kind and rank the estimated model through the autocorrelation function (AFC), Partial Autocorrelation function (PAFC) too, and thus the stability of time series data this followed by testing validity of the model (Validation) to represent the model ,and the statical validity to forecasts, To achieve this secondary data collected from varies sources such as (CAMPMS) and (FAO) ,during the period 2000-2020 was collected ,and forecasting the fertilizers budget during 2022-2030 have been also estimated. For policy makers the study recommends the following aspects: (1) supporting the private sector in order to reduce the percentage of exports, especially of nitrogen fertilizers as.(2) Raising awareness of farmers about the need to use the recommended quantities of fertilizers to maintain the quality and fertility of the soil. (3) Changing the current agricultural policies, whether at the farmers or management level, with the aim of developing the agricultural sector. (4) Reconsidering the method of cash or in-kind support that the farmer receives for production requirements, and applying the electronic system until the full support reaches the farmer, according to the actual land needs