Comparative performance of machine learning models in forecasting Somalia’s GDP growth using macroeconomic and environmental indicators

Abstract

Abstract This study evaluates the comparative performance of machine-learning models in forecasting Somalia’s GDP growth using macroeconomic and environmental indicators over the period 1991–2022. The analysis applies Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), Support Vector Machines, Random Forest (RF), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) to assess their predictive capabilities in a data-constrained environment. Given the relatively small sample size 32 annual observations, particular attention is paid to model design and implementation to mitigate overfitting and ensure reliable predictive performance. Simplified model architectures and controlled hyperparameters are employed across all models, while validation is conducted using cross-validation to improve generalization. The results indicate that ANN and CNN outperform other techniques, achieving lower prediction errors and higher R 2 values, suggesting stronger predictive performance. In contrast, ensemble learning models such as Random Forest and XGBoost show comparatively lower performance, which may be attributed to the limited sample size and data constraints.The Support Vector Machine is applied in its regression form (Support Vector Regression, SVR), which is appropriate for modeling continuous variables such as GDP growth, ensuring conceptual consistency in the forecasting framework. Overall, the findings highlight the potential of machine-learning techniques for economic forecasting in fragile and data-limited contexts.