Comparative Assessment of Temporal Deep Learning Architectures for Photovoltaic–Thermal System Thermal Efficiency Forecasting with Sequence Length Sensitivity Analysis

Abstract

The ongoing global energy transition has intensified the need for precise modeling of renewable energy systems, especially photovoltaic–thermal (PV/T) systems that have the ability to produce both electrical and thermal energy. Improving the efficiency and reliability of PV/T systems is a key enabler of the transition toward sustainable energy. Accurate forecasting of their thermal performance is therefore essential to maximize renewable energy use and reduce energy losses. A deep learning-based method is proposed in this study for the prediction of the thermal efficiency of an air-based PV/T system. More specifically, temporal deep learning architectures are investigated to exploit the complex nonlinear relationships and temporal dependencies governing the thermal behavior of the PV/T collector. A comprehensive comparative analysis is conducted using four state-of-the-art architectures, namely Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), and Transformer. Furthermore, the influence of sequence length is examined through a sensitivity analysis considering forecasting horizons of 1 h, 6 h, 12 h, and 24 h. The models are evaluated using the Coefficient of Determination (R2), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). The results demonstrate that forecasting performance is strongly influenced by the selected temporal horizon. Among the investigated configurations, the 24-h horizon provided the most informative temporal context for thermal efficiency prediction. Under this common forecasting horizon, the LSTM model achieved the highest predictive accuracy, reaching an R2 of 0.9952, an RMSE of 0.5975, and an MAE of 0.2364, outperforming the TCN, GRU, and Transformer architectures. The residual error and convergence analyses further highlighted the effectiveness of recurrent neural networks in capturing the thermal dynamics of the investigated PV/T system. By enabling accurate and reliable thermal efficiency forecasting, the proposed framework supports improved energy management, higher energy efficiency, and a stronger integration of renewable energy systems, thus contributing to more sustainable operation of hybrid solar energy technologies.