Comparative Analysis of Stochastics Approaches in Forecasting Nigeria’s Key Macroeconomic Indicators

Abstract

The Nigerian economy faces significant volatility in key macroeconomic variables, posing challenges to economic stability and growth. This study compares the performance of ARIMA, GARCH, and VAR models in forecasting GDP, exchange rates, interest rates, inflation, and unemployment, using annual data from 1981-2024. Results show that while ARIMA and GARCH models capture certain dynamics, the VAR model consistently delivers the highest forecast accuracy across all variables. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers seeking data-driven strategies to stabilize the economy and manage macroeconomic uncertainty.