Climate Variability and Temporary Migration: The Mediating Role of Food Insecurity Among Women in Bushbuckridge, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa

Abstract

ABSTRACT This study examines how climate variability influences the temporary migration among women in Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. To do so, it combines local precipitation records with longitudinal household socioeconomic data from the Agincourt Health and Socio‐Demographic Surveillance System (AHDSS) covering the period 1992–2023. A mediation approach is applied to assess the extent to which food insecurity explains the link between climate variability, measured using the Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI), and women's temporary migration. The findings indicate that the likelihood of women engaging in temporary migration rises during both below‐average and above‐average rainfall periods. Food insecurity, which intensifies as natural resource availability declines and crop failures increase under climatic extremes, mediates a considerable part of this relationship. The robustness of the mediation effect is confirmed through Sobel, Delta, and Monte Carlo tests. These results underscore the need for public authorities and development stakeholders to support livelihood diversification by promoting sectors that are less sensitive to climate variability, such as tourism and local processing industries. Such a shift would contribute to strengthening rural economies and widening employment opportunities for women, decreasing their dependence on migration as an adaptive response. Greater attention is also required to ensure the protection and inclusion of migrant women in destination areas through socioprofessional programs that enhance autonomy and resilience.