CLIMATE VARIABILITY, AGROECOLOGICAL CHANGE, AND CONFLICT DYNAMICS IN THE ADAMAWA STATE

Abstract

This study examines how climate variability and land-use change in the Benue Valley, with a focus on Adamawa State, have altered agroecological systems and influenced local conflict. Land use and land cover data for 1984, 2004, and 2024, combined with interviews in riverine communities, reveal sustained vegetation loss, expansion of bare surfaces, reduced water bodies, and settlement growth. Vegetation declined from 13,743.6 km² (42.83 per cent) in 1984 to 6,586.1 km² (20.52 per cent) in 2024, while bare surfaces increased from 17,866.0 km² (55.67 per cent) to 24,936.6 km² (77.71 per cent). Waterbodies decreased from 317.3 km² (0.99 per cent) to 182.4 km² (0.57 per cent). These trends are visible in communities such as Dasin, Fufore, Opalo, Imburu, and Waduku. Interview evidence connects these shifts to disputes over farmland, grazing routes, and river access. Land degradation and reduced water availability intensify farmer–herder clashes, intra-farming group competition, and livelihood-related crime. Sand mining, dry-season cultivation, and upstream impoundments add pressure on already weakened ecosystems. The study identifies the need for GIS-based water management, climate-smart agroecological support, participatory mapping of transhumance corridors, and youth-focused green livelihood programs to address the link between environmental decline and conflict in the Upper Benue Basin.