Climate risk assessment of China’s Cultural World Heritage highlights urgent need for adaptation

Abstract

Abstract Climate change poses escalating risks to cultural heritage with substantial implications for adaptation to minimize losses and damages. Integrating expert elicitation with projected changes in mean and extreme temperature and precipitation, we assess climate risk for 148 heritage sites and buffer zones within 39 Cultural World Heritage properties in China. Even under a moderate-emissions pathway (SSP245), risk increases for 82% of sites by mid‑century, with all sites reaching moderate to extreme risk by the 2070 s; by century’s end, over one‑third shift from low to high, or extreme risk. Ancient Architectural Structures are at risk in the near term, including Mount Wutai and the Yungang Grottoes. Over half of the sites are located in urban or peri‑urban areas, with nine urban sites facing extreme risk by 2100 regardless of scenario. These findings underscore the urgent need for adaptation across properties and buffer zones and offer guidance for scheduling site‑specific interventions.