Climate-related drivers of fire danger and activity in the Drakensberg mountains, South Africa

Abstract

Mountain environments across the globe are recognized as important regions with regards to the provisioning of freshwater, high levels of biodiversity, and cultural heritage. Mountains regions are typically characterized by complex climate regimes linked to significant topography and elevational gradients. The impact of climate change on mountain environments has started receiving research interest, especially in the broader field of applied climatology, with a number of impacts already being observed. The Drakensberg mountains of South Africa are classified as a World Heritage Site and are vital to freshwater resources in South Africa. The uKhahlamba-Drakensberg Park (UDP), a protected area of the Drakensberg mountains, is likely to also have experienced observed changes in the climate and associated impacts. This study utilized satellite-based remote sensing to quantify the geospatial characteristics of fires in the UDP. Timeseries analysis of fires in the UDP indicate that fires are increasing significantly in some areas of the park, while significant decreases in fire activity was observed in other parts. The Lowveld Fire Danger Index (LFDI) was calculated for three study sites in or within close proximity to the UDP using long-term daily meteorological data. Fire danger, as quantified by the LFDI is increasing significantly at both annual and seasonal temporal scales and was linked to areas where fire activity has increased significantly. While fire management in the UDP is sophisticated and well developed, the impact of climate change on fire management in the region is of concern and requires further research.