Carbon sequestration and livelihood outcomes of reforestation programmes in Ethiopia: A review of green legacy and participatory forest management

Abstract

• PFM forests store 3.7x more carbon (156.8 vs. 42.3 Mg C ha⁻¹) than GLI plantations. • PFM increases household income by 32.5% versus GLI's temporary employment model. • Integrating PFM governance with GLI planting achieves 20–35% better outcomes. • Ethiopia's carbon market potential ($29–87 ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹) remains underutilised. • Six evidence-based policy recommendations for integrated reforestation. Reforestation programmes in Ethiopia have been widely implemented to restore degraded landscapes, sequester atmospheric carbon, and improve rural livelihoods. This systematic review synthesises evidence on carbon sequestration outcomes and livelihood impacts of two major reforestation initiatives: the Green Legacy Initiative (GLI) and Participatory Forest Management (PFM). Following PRISMA 2020 guidelines, 42 peer-reviewed studies and 8 grey literature sources published between 2005 and 2024 were systematically selected from Scopus, Web of Science, and Google Scholar. Data were harmonised to common units and analysed descriptively and inferentially. Results indicate that PFM forests stored significantly more carbon (mean ± SD: 156.8 ± 58.4 Mg C ha⁻¹) than GLI plantations (42.3 ± 28.7 Mg C ha⁻¹; p < 0.001), attributed to older stand ages (35–50 years vs. 3–7 years), higher species diversity (Shannon H′: 2.1–2.8 vs. 0.8–1.4), and natural regeneration. Both programmes generated positive livelihood outcomes, though through different mechanisms: PFM increased household income by 25–40% through sustainable harvesting and ecotourism, while GLI provided short-term employment for 1.2 million people. However, trade-offs emerged GLI showed high seedling mortality (30–45%), limited species diversity, and uncertain long-term carbon persistence, whereas PFM faced governance challenges and market access barriers. The findings suggest that integrating PFM's community-based governance with GLI's large-scale planting could optimise both carbon and livelihood outcomes. Policy recommendations include diversifying GLI species portfolios, formalising carbon benefit-sharing mechanisms, and strengthening monitoring frameworks. These insights contribute to evidence-based reforestation policy in Ethiopia and comparable sub-Saharan African contexts.