Can Remittance Promote Tourism Income and Inclusive Gender Employment? Function of Migration in the South African Economy

Abstract

With globalisation and international trade, remittances and migration significantly influence economic activities, yet their impact on tourism income and gender-specific employment remains under-researched. This study uses autoregressive distributed lags and Granger causality to examine the effects of remittances and migration on tourism income and employment in South Africa. Three models are established as follows: for aggregate employment, male employment, and female employment, each with equations for tourism income and employment. Key findings from this study indicate that remittances significantly drive tourism income in both the short and long run across all models. Conversely, employment negatively impacts tourism income, hinting at sectoral trade-offs. Migration positively affects tourism income in the short run for male and aggregate models but is insignificant for female employment. Remittances boost male employment in both the short and long run, whereas their impact on female employment is significant only in the long run. Causality analysis shows a bidirectional relationship among employment indicators, with unidirectional causality from remittances to migration and from migration to income. This study recommends policies to support remittance inflows and their productive use in tourism, along with targeted interventions to reduce gender disparities in employment and promote equitable economic opportunities.