Building Climate-Resilient Development Pathways Through Drought Adaptation in Vulnerable Pastoral Systems of Botswana

Abstract

Projected climate change indicates that drought intensity will increase across much of the Global South, intensifying water stress in semi-arid regions. In Botswana, rising temperatures and increasingly variable rainfall are exacerbating drought conditions, particularly for livestock-based systems that depend on reliable grazing and water resources. This study was conducted in the Lake Ngami basin, Botswana, a predominantly pastoral community, to examine the adaptation and resilience of pastoralists to drought and climate change. The study examines the extent to which current coping strategies and institutional frameworks in the Lake Ngami basin contribute to long-term climate resilience among pastoral communities. It also assesses combinations of Climate-Resilient Development Pathways (CRDPs) that are most critical for enabling a transition from reactive coping to proactive and sustainable adaptation. We utilized in-depth community interviews, focus group discussions, and policy content analysis guided by the Climate-Resilient Development Pathways (CRDPs) framework to gather and analyze data using thematic analysis. Key findings indicated that droughts, intensified by factors like El Niño, have negatively affected the community’s livelihood, including grazing systems, access to water, and livestock productivity. The effectiveness of coping strategies was assessed through triangulation of thematic frequency, participant narratives of livelihood recovery, and analysis of policy implementation gaps. Pastoralists employed coping methods such as herd reduction, seasonal migration, and informal alternative livelihoods, but these were largely ineffective in promoting long-term resilience. While seasonal mobility provided short-term relief through access to distant grazing areas, forced livestock sales and herd reduction reduced herd size, weakening households’ long-term recovery capacity and increasing vulnerability. Institutional support programs such as the National Disaster Risk Reduction Strategy and the National Committee on Climate Change were found not adequate to build the necessary long-term pastoralists’ resilience. The study emphasizes that enhancing climate resilience in dryland pastoral systems necessitates combining traditional knowledge with improved infrastructure, climate information, and inclusive governance in comprehensive CRDPs.