Assessment of the Rainfall Trend Effect on Meteorological and Hydrological Drought in the Upper Sebou Basin, Morocco

Abstract

The upper Sebou River occupies a strategic territory draining varied mountain reaches in northern Morocco. As such, it is rich in surface water resources and karst springs with important downstream uses. However, the variability of rainfall threatens its water potential, making it highly vulnerable and at risk of desiccation. This study explores rainfall trends and their effects on streamflow and water resource availability. Data from three stations representing the upstream section of the watershed, along with two streamflow series—one for the upper Sebou River (Pont Medz) and the other for the Aïn Timdrine karst spring—cover the period from 1956 to 2018. The methodology employs Mann–Kendall trend tests, Sen’s Slope test, and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for rainfall series, as well as the Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) for hydrological series. The results demonstrate a decline in rainfall since 1979, significant at the 5% threshold. This trend has an immediate impact on the flow rates of the area’s rivers and karst springs, which have also tended to decline, with a succession of dry years and seasons since 1980. This observation highlights the depletion of water resources of the fragile upper Sebou region in the face of decreasing rainfall and snowfall, compounded by the rampant and unsustainable exploitation of groundwater resources linked to the development of irrigated cash crops in the Middle Atlas Mountains.