Assessment of performance of the regional climate model (RegCM4.6) to simulate winter rainfall in the north of Morocco: The case of Tangier-Tétouan-Al-Hociema Region

Abstract

We examine the performance of the regional climate model RegCM v4.6 to simulate spatial variability of precipitation in the northwestern region of Morocco during the winter of 2009-2010. Simulations cover 24 months from 2009 to 2010 with 30 km as a horizontal grid. We use NCEP reanalysis as forcing data and for better comparison of results, observed precipitations derived from CRU, CHIRPS, and CMORPH data. Results indicate that, on the whole, the RegCM4 model represents appropriate regional aspects of rainfall over the study area but underestimates precipitations over mountainous and Mediterranean regions of the study area (Case of Tangier-Tétouan-Al-Hociema Region) which is probably due to poor representation of orography in the Model and some aspects of local Mediterranean climate. Projected precipitations are also examined in this work in comparison with the reference period of 1970-2005, with simulations performed by RegCM 4.6 regional model for the period 2023-2099 under scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, forced by HadGEM2-ES General Circulation Model. Results show a decrease in precipitations mean for (2023-2099) for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios over the study area in comparison with the historical period (1970-2005), with a significant decrease under RCP8.5 scenarios. This work proves that the RegCM v4.6 model can be used for regional climate prediction, particularly for the spatial distribution of precipitation, but for sectorial applications and impact studies, the Model outputs should be bias corrected.